After months of speculation and projections, the official National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2027 were released September 9th. On average, these are the lowest cutoffs in National Merit history, with all 50 state cutoffs sitting lower than they did last year. Most cutoffs went down at least 3 points from the class of 2026’s figures. Alaska set the pace with a 7-point decline. New Jersey again finished with the highest mark, dropping from 225 to 223. Compass will explore:
- How the class of 2027 results stack up historically and how cutoffs are set
- The lower number of Semifinalists nationally
- Why cutoffs declined so precipitously. Hint: It’s not the students.
- The implications of score instability for students, schools, and states
- What the class of 2028 might expect after they take the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and on what timeline
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even “full-rides” for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, look at whether a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
Summarizing the changes seen for the class of 2027
In October 2015 the PSAT moved to a 320-1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400-1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are in the last eleven class years.
This year saw the average Semifinalist cutoff hit a record low. It provided something of a mirror image to the class of 2026. Last year, 11 states set new record highs in the modern PSAT era, and 10 more tied their records. This year, 5 states established new lows, and 18 tied their record lows. Kansas and Minnesota both dropped 2 points below their previous lows, an unusual event for mid-sized states. Even more unusual was what happened in the largest dozen states. None of those has ever seen a drop of more than 3 points, but this year saw California, Illinois, and Michigan fall 4 points.
Results this year were closer to those in the class of 2024 than they were to the previous two years’ results. Recency is not always a predictor of future results. The Commended level, which is set nationally, declined 2 points this year to 208. The Semifinalist cutoffs, in contrast, fell 3 points.
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Why did the total number of Semifinalists decline?
After recognizing more than 17,000 Semifinalists in the prior two years, the class of 2027 saw only 16,230, a decline of 5%. The decline in Semifinalists is a separate issue from lower cutoffs. Setting cutoffs can be a blunt tool. In a large state, there may be more than 200-300 students at a single score. Small states might have multiple scores with zero students. NMSC can’t always hit its targets on the nose. Below are the largest swings in both directions.
How Semifinalists are allocated among states
It’s possible that NMSC recalibrated the total target number of Semifinalists this year. It helps to understand how National Merit sets cutoffs. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school students, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
The changes in the above chart fit within the historical pattern, so students should expect similar swings to happen in the future. New Jersey had about the same number of Semifinalists in 2023 as it saw this year, and actually fell from a greater height compared to 2022. Similarly, Texas saw fewer than 1,462 Semifinalists in classes of 2020, 2021, and 2022. And there is little chance that NMSC calculated that Texas’ high school population was falling faster than, say, California’s. We won’t know until next September whether the 16,230 Semifinalists was a fluke or a new standard.
The Mystery of the Declining PSAT Scores
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. National Merit cutoffs may not have the makings of a Sherlock Holmes novel. The guilty party is too easy to identify and the deduction not all that improbable. To borrow from another mystery trope: it’s College Board in the testing room with a faulty scale.
When test scores change from year-to-year, College Board issues press releases discussing testing patterns and student achievement. What they never include is “That one’s on us.” When it comes to National Merit scores, however, it often is.
A history of change
Over the last seventeen years, there have been six classes that saw cutoffs change in more than forty states. The heat strip below shows how cutoffs shift from year to year.
Even if we eliminate “bounce back” years where scores come back into line after an unusual shift, a major disruption occurs approximately every 4 years. Interestingly, none of those scoring disruptions can be attached to the biggest behavioral disruption of all — the Covid cancellations that drove PSAT/NMSQT volumes below one million for the first time in decades. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (class of 2013), 2016 (class of 2018), and 2019 (class of 2021) stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year, similar to what we are seeing with the class of 2027.
When Semifinalist cutoffs reached vertiginous levels last year, several theories made the rounds:
- (A) Covid-related learning losses were vanquished
- (B) The integrated Desmos calculator on the digital PSAT had “broken” the Math section
- (C) Test preparation — and maybe AI-enabled test preparation — had made the test too easy
- (D) The test taking population shifted
Compass disputed each of these theories, but it wasn’t until this year’s free-fall that we could put each of them fully to rest. A key piece of evidence is which scores rose and fell.
Over the most recent three PSATs, the highest reported Math scores (College Board groups all 700-760 scores together) did go up on the October 2024 PSAT, but they settled back down on the October 2025 PSAT. If improving Math skills were the key driver, why did they not keep progressing upward? The fall PSAT also provides an inherent double-check, because sophomores and juniors both take the exam in similar numbers. Sophomores and juniors consistently tracked each other across the different exams. The class of 2025 and 2026 overlapped, then 2026 and 2027, and then 2027 and 2028. Every PSAT the movement has been similar. Yet sophomores do not do test preparation in sufficient force to shape score results. The sets of classes were in different points of math development during remote learning, and yet they showed the same rises and falls. Learning loss and test preparation do not provide coherent answers.
Reading & Writing scores were the true driver of the class of 2026 records and the 2027 declines
High RW scores are typically less common than high Math scores. But on the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Top scores went up by 18%. The double-weight that RW scores provide in the Selection Index pushed cutoffs to new highs. The 210 Commended ranked only fourth when compared to the previous decade. Earlier class years saw cutoffs of 211 and 212 (twice). So why did last year’s cutoffs rise to levels that had seemed impossible? The highest cutoffs had never exceeded 223 (Maryland’s 224 in the class of 2022 was due to every PSAT in the state being cancelled and students qualifying via SAT scores). How did New Jersey and Massachusetts reach 225 and California, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington end up at 224? The best explanation is that the very top RW scores — 740-760 — increased at an even higher rate than 700-730s. A 225 cutoff is not possible without at least a 750 RW. A 224 requires at least a 740 RW. Students were acing the test in record numbers.
The plummet for the class of 2027
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for the class of 2027 is even lower than it was two years ago. The surfeit of 700+ scores dried up. Obtaining a 740-760 grew harder. As with Math scores, sophomore performance changes matched that of juniors.
Process of elimination
The rapid gains and collapse eliminate (A), (B), and (C). As sophomores, the class of 2027 was phenomenal at reading according to the PSAT. Post-Covid learning changes cannot explain why they suddenly struggled as juniors. Option (B) doesn’t fit, because Math scores were not the source of the changes. Why would test preparation have stopped working (C), and how can it explain that sophomores and juniors were similarly impacted across the years? This leaves (D) as a remote contender. Except that it fails to explain the 50-state reach of the changes and the magnitude of the changes even in the largest states.
Thirteen of the largest fifteen states dropped by 3 points or more. Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw 2-point declines. If the smaller states were pulling down the class of 2027’s average cutoffs, we might at least attribute some of the disruption to the instability of cutoffs when there are fewer than 100 Semifinalists. That’s not what happened. And if only a few large states saw inflows or outflows of top test takers, the impact would have been muted. Nor did overall test taker numbers change much. When the entire set of large states has this magnitude of a change, the test scale itself has to be at the heart of it.
What does a 3-point change represent and why is it so bad?
For simplicity, the change can be characterized as a 15-point miss in RW on the 160-760 scale (200-800 on the SAT).
- The typical annual growth in RW scores is about 40-50 points, so the scale change represents approximately one-third of an academic year.
- Systematic scaling error is additive to individual student fluctuations in scores — typically around +/-30 points on each side of the PSAT and SAT. Scaling error makes it harder for students to determine where they will score and how their score stacks up.
- Scaling error produces incorrect percentile ranks, because percentiles are based on the 3 prior years of results. Sudden inflation or deflation gives an inaccurate read.
- The PSAT is used for purposes beyond National Merit such as AP placement or state-mandated testing. Results may not align with prior years or academic growth expectations.
- When error happens primarily on one side of the PSAT, some students are unfairly disadvantaged.
- In a competition such as National Merit where relative standing matters, a uniform increase or decrease might be tolerable. A rising tide lifts all students (sort of). Except that there is no way of knowing whether the error applied equally to all students. The digital PSAT is not a single form or even a limited set of forms. Exams across the PSAT testing window can vary, and even on the same test dates, students often see differing questions. It’s one of the security advantages provided by digital testing, but it can also be a curse. College Board provides no reporting on the items or scaling, so students (and Compass) have no way of assessing the impact on individuals. Schools have no way of knowing if their students were hit harder than at other schools.
- This keeps happening. Is College Board having difficulty keeping the digital PSAT scale consistent or will things stay more consistent over time? The historical record says that they will not.
Do these sorts of systematic scaling errors occur on the SAT?
They do. They are harder to spot, but likely even more common. Noted above is that the largest disruptions on the PSAT/NMSQT occur, on average, every 4 years. The SAT is given on (a) 8 national dates every year, (b) during a 2-month SAT School Day window in the spring, and (c) during a 1-month window in the fall. This accelerates the chance for errors. It creates a near certainty that some students will encounter systematic error in their favor and others will see it working against them.
The PSAT and the National Merit Scholarship Program provide a unique laboratory. The PSAT/NMSQT represents one slice in time. The population of PSAT takers is relatively stable from year to year, and the sophomore and junior PSATs provide a sort of longitudinal double-check. The 50 state cutoffs and their varying levels give information about the extent of scaling errors. Comparing ever-shifting SAT dates is difficult, especially because College Board restricts access to the data. It is unfortunate that the primary protection students have is taking the SAT multiple times. In combination with superscoring, it represents the best way for students to lock-in positive error.
How do errors happen? Shouldn’t scores stay consistent?
When new tests are designed, not every problem can be tested on previous populations of students. Instead, a sampling of problems is tested with a sampling of students, perhaps 4-5,000. In theory, that’s a significant enough size that random error will make little difference. The sample group should be comparable to the entire population. Random error is an acceptable part of test creation, because it largely cancels out at scale.
But what if the error is not random? What if the test design is flawed? For example, if the methodology continually overestimates the ability of the sample groups, future questions will be predicted to be harder than they really are. And then over-prediction may happen with the next group. This systematic bias can creep into a test production and equating process. Normally it is spotted. As we see from the October 2024 PSAT and similar examples, sometimes it is not. The National Merit program provides a challenge to test creators, because everything important happens in a narrow part of the scale. On the digital PSAT, only 50 questions count toward a student’s score. Differentiating between a 720 student, for example, and a 730 student, and a 740 student rests on small differences in performance. If College Board has the statistics even slightly off, scores will not align well across tests. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
Predictions and timeline for the class of 2028 and beyond
Compass has always warned students not to be too fixated on a single cutoff target. The crazy events of the last two years have made it obvious that cutoffs can move in large and unexpected ways. It’s better to think in terms of score ranges rather than a pass/fail score. Prior to the PSAT, we can only estimate based on historical figures, without knowing what kind of surprises College Board has in store. After the PSAT, Compass analyzes the national results in the broad buckets that College Board provides. This usually gives a clear idea of which way the overall trend is moving. We should see how RW and Math scores behave, what the 1400-1520 bucket looks like, and develop a tight estimate of the Commended cutoff. For example, here is the estimate from last year.
Unfortunately, it does not provide insight into individual states. In April, the Commended level usually leaks, and we get confirmation of the national trend predictions. It’s not until Semifinalist notifications start being handed out in late August that state-by-state information starts coming into focus.
Below is a pre-PSAT summary. Find the range of potential cutoffs in your state, and how it has stacked up in recent class years. Below the table is more information about the National Merit program. You may also want to consult our post on National Merit Explained, which goes more into the steps of the process, what different honors mean, and what sort of scholarships are available.
State | Class of 2028 (Est Range) | Class of 2027 (Actual) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg SF Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 239 |
| Alaska | 207-217 | 208 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 36 |
| Arizona | 214-220 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 359 |
| Arkansas | 209-215 | 210 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 145 |
| California | 219-224 | 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,125 |
| Colorado | 216-221 | 217 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 280 |
| Connecticut | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 182 |
| Delaware | 218-222 | 219 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 43 |
| Florida | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 959 |
| Georgia | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 554 |
| Hawaii | 215-220 | 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 210-216 | 211 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 90 |
| Illinois | 217-222 | 218 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 693 |
| Indiana | 214-219 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 320 |
| Iowa | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 152 |
| Kansas | 211-219 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 147 |
| Kentucky | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 208 |
| Louisiana | 210-217 | 211 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 227 |
| Maine | 211-217 | 214 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 61 |
| Maryland | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 313 |
| Massachusetts | 220-225 | 221 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 322 |
| Michigan | 215-220 | 216 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 509 |
| Minnesota | 213-220 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 284 |
| Mississippi | 209-215 | 211 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 149 |
| Missouri | 213-217 | 214 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 299 |
| Montana | 207-214 | 208 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 46 |
| Nebraska | 210-216 | 212 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 148 |
| New Hampshire | 213-219 | 215 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 64 |
| New Jersey | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 486 |
| New Mexico | 207-215 | 209 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 99 |
| New York | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 998 |
| North Carolina | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 502 |
| North Dakota | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 28 |
| Ohio | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 588 |
| Oklahoma | 208-216 | 210 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 195 |
| Oregon | 215-221 | 216 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 185 |
| Pennsylvania | 217-221 | 219 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 623 |
| Rhode Island | 212-220 | 213 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 50 |
| South Carolina | 209-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 225 |
| South Dakota | 208-215 | 210 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 39 |
| Tennessee | 213-219 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 324 |
| Texas | 218-222 | 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,508 |
| Utah | 208-216 | 209 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 181 |
| Vermont | 211-217 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 30 |
| Virginia | 219-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 412 |
| Washington | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 353 |
| West Virginia | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 211-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 295 |
| Wyoming | 207-213 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 21 |
| District of Columbia | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Studying Abroad | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 87 |
| U.S. Territories | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Commended | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (320-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello Mr. Sawyer, I submitted this question to you but had already submitted to the NMSC and just received their response. I thought you may be interested in confirmed timing as well as others too. Thanks for this forum to share info. Laura
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“Thank you for contacting us. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) is not changing the method of notifying high schools of Semifinalists in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) will mail information regarding Semifinalists in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program to high schools on August 25, 2020. We will mail information about Commended Students in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program to high schools on September 10, 2020.
We ask that a school official watch for the mailing. Once a school official logs in as the OSA Administrator, that person will download the student letters in PDF format, which can be distributed to students electronically. ”
Thank you, Laura. It’s good to get the exact mailing date. My experience is that it’s not a quick journey from post office to school (or at least to the right person at a school). If there are any home schoolers reading these posts, please let everyone know when you receive something!
Yes, hoping it makes it into our new Principals hands promptly. My concern is that because we have had a significant change of school leadership personnel along with major school remodel construction and add that to the major challenges of new distance learning due to Covid-19, just hope it doesn’t get buried under a pile somewhere.
I just received the letter from National Merit Scholarship. My homeschooled son with index 219 is semifinalist in Illinois.
Kristina,
It’s great to hear that the mail is arriving. Congratulations to your son!
Kristina, can you post a picture of what the envelope & letter look like? We have had important mail/packages go missing at our school many times. Thought having a pic could help the mail sorter. Thanks!
Received notification envelope for my daughter in CT on Sept 1.
Laura, I don’t believe I can post an image here, but ours arrived in a large (9×12 inches) white envelope. On it there is a large neon green sticker with the words “ATTENTION: Scholarship Application Materials Enclosed,” and the lower left corner says “ATTENTION PRINCIPAL Dated Material Enclosed.” It should be easy to spot!
My son’s PSAT Index 222(AZ) and SAT (1560) from Dec 2019 (760 reading and 800 math), what are his chances of qualifying for NMSC finalist ?
Pavani,
We just received word that NMSC will not be considering SAT or ACT scores for Finalist standing. It’s not clear whether that means they will put more emphasis on grades or simply have more Finalists. NMSC does not publish any specific cutoffs on grades. Students must have “a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12.”
How likely is it that NMSC will clarify whether they will put more emphasis on grades or simply have more Finalists? My son was hoping his qualifying SAT score might help to offset the weakness in his application — some iffy grades his freshman year.
Given how few specifics NMSC has ever given about grades, I’d say that it is unlikely that there will be any clarification. Keep in mind that it would not be a significant shift. Even when SAT/ACT scores were a factor, almost 95% of Semifinalists qualified as Finalists.
Good Afternoon,
As stated in the Requirements and Instructions for Semifinalists in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program document, “Due to the global pandemic and the resulting lack of available test administrations, SAT and ACT scores will not be required or considered for Finalist standing in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program.” You can find this document posted at http://www.nationalmerit.org/resources.
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This is from a email exchange with NMSC, thought everyone should know! I am sure I was not the only one who was stressed.
Thank you, Abdul. That’s going to put a lot of students at ease. I’ve updated the post.
NMSC has released the Requirements and Instructions for Semifinalists. Per the PDF (link below), NMSC will announce/release the names of the semifinalists to news media on Sept. 9th. And the deadline to send completed applications is Oct. 7th.
https://nationalmerit.imodules.com/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/merit_r_i_leaflet.pdf?sessionid=31989c37-fbf3-4b5a-a16f-73e209fbabda&cc=1
~Sam
Sam,
Thank you for the link and the dates. I’ve updated the post.
Mr. Sawyer,
Could you please publish the essay prompt if/when you get a chance to see it? I am sure my daughter’s school will be informing us very late in the game. Last year they did not do it till Sept 13th and this year with all the chaos, I am sure this is not on their priority list.
Thanks,
Sam..
Yes. I will. There are no guarantees, of course, but the prompt has been unchanged for a number of years. See our FAQ.
Hello,
Assuming that a semi finalist completes all of the requirements adequately, are they guaranteed finalists? In other words, is the semi finalist to finalist process a competition or is it just a matter of completing set requirements.
Ankit,
I believe it is a matter of completing the set of requirements. However, since NMSC does not publish specific criteria on academic performance, it’s impossible to know what meeting that requirement looks like.
Art,
Our senior was just notified of NMSF status. She had a 220 selection score in Florida. In determining the 15,000 finalists, does the program weigh the selection score so that a higher score improves your chances or, once you make the cut, does the selection score get disregarded and the analysis is just GPA, essay and application? Curious especially since confirming SAT will not be considered. Thanks for all you do!
Jeremy,
In the past, the Selection Index has not played a role in Finalist selection. And since it is not mentioned in the current requirements, I can’t imagine that this will change. What we don’t know is whether there will be more Finalists or whether grades will become more important.
A technical question … How does a cutoff score become 219 (an odd number) considering the following math? Thank you.
NMSC Selection Index Score = 2 x (Reading Test + Writing and Language Test + Math Test)
Hi Satchi,
The Math Test has some scores on the half point. For example, a Reading score of 36, Writing & Language score of 38, and Math score of 35.5 would be 2 x (36 + 38 + 35.5) = 219.
Hi, your table says that 216 is the cutoff for Florida. However, I got 218 and I was commended. The cutoff is 219 this year.
Your table is wrong.
Please let me know if there is some confusion.
Ava,
I’m investigating this on my end. Is there any chance that you are at a boarding school? If so, you would likely need to meet Georgia’s score of 219. Also, did you receive notice that you were Commended or is that an assumption? I am wondering if NMSC doesn’t have your eligibility marked correctly. If that were true, it can usually be corrected. I apologize for any distress. Rest assured that I am trying to get more information.
Ava,
I did some further research. Another colleague confirmed the 216 in Florida. Boarding school cutoffs are set at the highest cutoff within a region, which is why Florida boarding schools inherit the Georgia cutoff.
Hi Mr. Sawyer, thank you so much for the quick response. It was an error from my end. Thank you
how did you know you are commended? my son should be commended as well but we have not heard anything. thanks.
Art,
We have a senior who was notified of NMSF status in Florida. Her selection score was 220, though the state cutoff was 216. Especially in light of the fact that this year’s applications will not include SAT scores, do you think a higher selection score will impact Finalist Selection, or do you think the score is irrelevant once you make Semifinalist? Thanks for all the information you provide!
Jeremy,
If NMSC was going to make that change, I’d think that it would have amended the Requirements and Instructions to mention it. There is no such mention, so I am assuming “irrelevant.”
Is there any way to see the list of all Semifinalists in Pennsylvania? No news sources have posted an article about my school district.
Tunt,
Only news media and schools receive lists. They are only published if a news site feels it is useful, and — as you’ve found — many sites only post about local students. There are three options that have worked in the past: (1) Ask your counselor or principal. They’re the only ones who can get you the official letter and Finalist portal information. (2) Contact NMSC. They’re likely overwhelmed, but they will often confirm a name after the press release date. (3) Reach out to a reporter/blogger in PA who has published local information. They should have received the full state list, and some are willing to share. Good luck in your quest.
Hi Art,
It’s 9/9 and we still haven’t heard about the semifinalist announcement for Texas, specifically Plano ISD. Neither our school counselor. My daughter got a SI=220 (score: 1480). Sorry but this waiting has been eating me up. Can you confirm with us
1) Texas cutoff for semifinalist is 219
2) Where can I find the list for semifinalist for my state?
Thanks.
Tony,
I can confirm that the cutoff is 219. I wish there were a better system for announcements. It’s up to the school, the district, or the news media to publish the list (National Merit does not), and it’s a hit-or-miss process. PISD did publish an announcement last year, but there is so much different about 2020. You’ll want to first see if you can reach the school counselor, since the counselor (or principal) is the only source for the information your daughter will need to login to her portal. NMSC may be able to confirm your daughter’s status, but it will not release any other information to you.
Art,
I was notified by my counselor that I had been selected as a National Merit semifinalist, but I have not received any communications from National Merit. Should I be worried?
AJ,
Congratulations! Nothing to worry about. National Merit does not send students anything directly at this stage. Your counselor will be getting you details and instructions for logging into the portal for Finalist applications. It’s extremely common for counselors to share the good news immediately before having a chance to get each student the information. If you haven’t heard more from the counselor by Monday, you might want to check in.
Art,
I have twins in Texas with scores of 223 and 219, so it looks like they’ll both make it. Still no official word. The difference in SI is all due to one additional question missed in the reading section. Pretty crazy how tight it is.
I am actually writing to just thank you for all the information you’ve provided this year. It’s helped me navigate the process with a much higher level of understanding. Well done.
Michael,
Congratulations x 2! Thank you for the kind words. Yes, the swings were crazy this year. It’s good to hear that both of your students made the cut.
Needless to say, this has been a chaotic year for schools; I’m sure you’ll hear soon. I’d recommend reaching out to the counselor if you haven’t heard anything by Monday. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen anyone publish the full Texas list this year.
Is there any way to see a list?
Marion,
A Redditor has compiled a great resource: https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/comments/ipmq79/lists_of_semifinalists_by_state/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Thanks Art,
Thank you for your great article. Your cutoff predictions/announcements are spot on for Texas. PISD has finally made their semi list public on 9/15. Not sure why all the unnecessary delay but the district went from 120 semifinalist in 2020 to 103 in 2019 – quite a drop. My daughter makes to the semi. Now time to gather all the necessary requirements for the next step – Wasting the whole week bc all the delay, LOL!
Just happy to hear that you finally got word. Congratulations to your daughter! If you have the chance to pass along the essay prompt for this year, I’d like to update my resource.
Hi! Thank you for the great information. We live in Pennsylvania and my daughter scored 217, which looks like she made the cutoff, however, when she checked again today, her school counselor told her that they haven’t heard anything from NMSC. Any advice?
Elizabeth, sorry for the delay. I’ve hope you’ve heard by now or seen this list: https://nms2021.weebly.com/uploads/5/9/8/8/59885031/21_pa_semifinalists-natlmeritprogram%5B8768%5D.pdf.
Is it a bad sign that the high school has not notified us at all? Student in CT has an index score of 224. Shouldn’t the student qualify as semifinalist? We have reached out to the counselor and administration. Who else can we ask?
Lydia,
NMSC will give you confirmation: (847) 866-5100. What they won’t give you, AFAIK, is the letter with the login credentials your student will need. But at least you’ll know that you need to keep bothering the school.
Art,
My son got his August SAT score E:710, M:800. This is his alternate test. We live in Colorado, I believe this is a SI of 218 . I think this qualified him as SF, but we didn’t hear from school yet. Is my SI calculation correct for alternate test score?
Claudia,
Your best bet is to call NMSC directly at this point and find out for sure. (847) 866-5100 Your calculation looks correct.
Hi Art,
I’m confused, isn’t semifinalist status decided by PSAT score and not the SAT score? The above person has mentioned August SAT score of E 710 and M 800. I wonder why.
KG,
I mistakenly left off another post by the parent explaining that the student’s PSAT was cancelled last October and was granted alternate entry by NMSC. This allows students to enter the competition with an SAT score. Because PSAT scores are capped at 760, the NM calculation for SAT scores is also capped at 760. So the student had an SI equivalent to 71×2 + 76 = 218.
Just hearing about the no questions asked alternate entry plan. It still seems unfair to the PSAT test takers. It’s mentioned in the article that students may take multiple SATs and the best score will be used. Also is this calculation not adjusting the 710? Since the SAT gives students the opportunity to earn up to 800 points, shouldn’t the 710 be adjusted as well? I see the 800 being adjusted to 760. Am I missing something?
Sally,
One way to think about it is that the existence of the Alternate Entry program does not make it any harder for a PSAT student to qualify (as long as NMSC sticks with existing rules). In fact, because of the likelihood of lower qualifying scores this year, PSAT takers may have an easier time compared to previous years. To your point, though, it may be even easier for those students taking the SAT. Without overhauling the entire program, I’m not sure how NMSC should deal with things. It could open up the SAT to any student as a means of qualifying, but then it would need to find a way of using those scores to set cutoffs. That could lead to even bigger problems and greater equity issues.
Vertical scales always make me think of high jumps. Two competitors are using two different bars and each clears 5′. If only one of the bars goes to 6′, then there is no meaningful way of judging the competitors over 5′. In this analogy, the PSAT and SAT both go to 5′ (a 760). Only the SAT goes to 6′, so any score above 760 is treated as a 760. The 710 would be like a jump at 4′ 6″, because each test measures it in the same way. That’s why a 710 is not adjusted.
I am a current National Merit Scholar who took the alternate route and can help you if need be 🙂
Hi Kellen,
My son took the SAT on August 29, NMSC has his score (as they told me) but, they don’t know how long it will take to notify schools because there is only one person in charge of this 🙁 My son is applying for colleges that give good aid to NMSF, but he still needs to wait until confirmation.
When did you take the alternate test and how long did you wait for your school to notify you?
Hi,
Any idea when they will notify the commended scholars? My son got a 211 but we have not heard a word. Thanks.
Tammy,
NMSC sends Commended notifications to schools immediately after the Semifinalist names go public. Those should be showing up to schools by now.
Thanks. Is there a list of commended scholars?
No, NMSC does not put out a full list of Commended scholars. Schools will sometimes publish the names.
Thanks!
Hello Mr. Sawyer:
Do you think I could become a semifinalist if I got Math: 800 and Reading: 750 on my SAT? I live in California.
April,
I do. Unless NMSC changes the qualifying rules, I can’t imagine a 226 Selection Index not make the cutoff.
What is the source for the number of 1400-1520 students? 26,103 looks too precise to be an estimate but I can’t find a CB publication with that data.
Steve,
It is not an estimate.
Wondering if you can update the projected January numbers of test scorers above 1400 now that the scores are out.
Thanks- great article.
Mom,
I hope to get more information on the January administration, but I don’t have distributions yet. We still won’t have state numbers, so I doubt that things will be so skewed in January that it will change my take.
Thank you for the great article, Art! This is very informative.
Are the semifinalist through alternate entry announced later than the ones through regular PSAT?
Because it says “submit your SAT score by Oct 15” on NMSC website, but cutoff and semifinalists are announced in late August or early September. So I am guessing they will select semifinalists through alternate entry after selecting semifinalist through regular PSAT. Am I right?
Liz,
That’s a great question, and I’m not 100% confident in my answer. I believe if the student gets scores in early enough that they are announced with the regular release in September. Normally, students at or above the Commended level based on the PSAT are pre-vetted by high schools in April (name matches, junior, attends school, etc.). I’m not sure if NMSC is able to take care of that over the summer. The other thing that doesn’t make sense is that I believe Oct 15 is after the Finalist application is due. Presumably they make accommodations for that. NMSC tends to be responsive. If you are in the Alternate Entry group and are concerned, I would give them a call. Please pass along anything that you find.
Hello. I most likely will not be able to take the PSAT tomorrow. Considering that administration of the SAT in California is unlikely and that I wasn’t aware that I wouldn’t be able to take the PSAT, do you have any advice?
Missing,
I wouldn’t give up hope for the SAT. You can take the test as late as June. Let’s hope CA is close to normal by that point. I’d recommend signing up for at least May or June, because those sites will fill up quickly if March is canceled. And remember to fill out the Alternate Entry application now. Good luck!
Hello, Mr. Sawyer!
Do you have confidence in saying that it is likely that I will be commended if I got a 690 on both Math and EBRW subscores of my PSAT (a total score of 1380 and a SI of 207)?
John,
My best guess is that the Commended level will drop, but we don’t even know the results from the January exam yet. I think your odds are a little better than 50-50.
Hello,
I used alternate entry, and my score is 222. I’m in Washington State – what are my chances of moving to Semifinalists? If the cutoff is exactly 222, will I still move on to the semifinalist stage?
Ivan,
If the cutoff is exactly 222, you would qualify. I don’t think we will see Washington at 223 this year.