After months of speculation and projections, the official National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2027 were released September 9th. On average, these are the lowest cutoffs in National Merit history, with all 50 state cutoffs sitting lower than they did last year. Most cutoffs went down at least 3 points from the class of 2026’s figures. Alaska set the pace with a 7-point decline. New Jersey again finished with the highest mark, dropping from 225 to 223. Compass will explore:
- How the class of 2027 results stack up historically and how cutoffs are set
- The lower number of Semifinalists nationally
- Why cutoffs declined so precipitously. Hint: It’s not the students.
- The implications of score instability for students, schools, and states
- What the class of 2028 might expect after they take the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and on what timeline
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even “full-rides” for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, look at whether a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
Summarizing the changes seen for the class of 2027
In October 2015 the PSAT moved to a 320-1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400-1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are in the last eleven class years.
This year saw the average Semifinalist cutoff hit a record low. It provided something of a mirror image to the class of 2026. Last year, 11 states set new record highs in the modern PSAT era, and 10 more tied their records. This year, 5 states established new lows, and 18 tied their record lows. Kansas and Minnesota both dropped 2 points below their previous lows, an unusual event for mid-sized states. Even more unusual was what happened in the largest dozen states. None of those has ever seen a drop of more than 3 points, but this year saw California, Illinois, and Michigan fall 4 points.
Results this year were closer to those in the class of 2024 than they were to the previous two years’ results. Recency is not always a predictor of future results. The Commended level, which is set nationally, declined 2 points this year to 208. The Semifinalist cutoffs, in contrast, fell 3 points.
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Why did the total number of Semifinalists decline?
After recognizing more than 17,000 Semifinalists in the prior two years, the class of 2027 saw only 16,230, a decline of 5%. The decline in Semifinalists is a separate issue from lower cutoffs. Setting cutoffs can be a blunt tool. In a large state, there may be more than 200-300 students at a single score. Small states might have multiple scores with zero students. NMSC can’t always hit its targets on the nose. Below are the largest swings in both directions.
How Semifinalists are allocated among states
It’s possible that NMSC recalibrated the total target number of Semifinalists this year. It helps to understand how National Merit sets cutoffs. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school students, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
The changes in the above chart fit within the historical pattern, so students should expect similar swings to happen in the future. New Jersey had about the same number of Semifinalists in 2023 as it saw this year, and actually fell from a greater height compared to 2022. Similarly, Texas saw fewer than 1,462 Semifinalists in classes of 2020, 2021, and 2022. And there is little chance that NMSC calculated that Texas’ high school population was falling faster than, say, California’s. We won’t know until next September whether the 16,230 Semifinalists was a fluke or a new standard.
The Mystery of the Declining PSAT Scores
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. National Merit cutoffs may not have the makings of a Sherlock Holmes novel. The guilty party is too easy to identify and the deduction not all that improbable. To borrow from another mystery trope: it’s College Board in the testing room with a faulty scale.
When test scores change from year-to-year, College Board issues press releases discussing testing patterns and student achievement. What they never include is “That one’s on us.” When it comes to National Merit scores, however, it often is.
A history of change
Over the last seventeen years, there have been six classes that saw cutoffs change in more than forty states. The heat strip below shows how cutoffs shift from year to year.
Even if we eliminate “bounce back” years where scores come back into line after an unusual shift, a major disruption occurs approximately every 4 years. Interestingly, none of those scoring disruptions can be attached to the biggest behavioral disruption of all — the Covid cancellations that drove PSAT/NMSQT volumes below one million for the first time in decades. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (class of 2013), 2016 (class of 2018), and 2019 (class of 2021) stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year, similar to what we are seeing with the class of 2027.
When Semifinalist cutoffs reached vertiginous levels last year, several theories made the rounds:
- (A) Covid-related learning losses were vanquished
- (B) The integrated Desmos calculator on the digital PSAT had “broken” the Math section
- (C) Test preparation — and maybe AI-enabled test preparation — had made the test too easy
- (D) The test taking population shifted
Compass disputed each of these theories, but it wasn’t until this year’s free-fall that we could put each of them fully to rest. A key piece of evidence is which scores rose and fell.
Over the most recent three PSATs, the highest reported Math scores (College Board groups all 700-760 scores together) did go up on the October 2024 PSAT, but they settled back down on the October 2025 PSAT. If improving Math skills were the key driver, why did they not keep progressing upward? The fall PSAT also provides an inherent double-check, because sophomores and juniors both take the exam in similar numbers. Sophomores and juniors consistently tracked each other across the different exams. The class of 2025 and 2026 overlapped, then 2026 and 2027, and then 2027 and 2028. Every PSAT the movement has been similar. Yet sophomores do not do test preparation in sufficient force to shape score results. The sets of classes were in different points of math development during remote learning, and yet they showed the same rises and falls. Learning loss and test preparation do not provide coherent answers.
Reading & Writing scores were the true driver of the class of 2026 records and the 2027 declines
High RW scores are typically less common than high Math scores. But on the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Top scores went up by 18%. The double-weight that RW scores provide in the Selection Index pushed cutoffs to new highs. The 210 Commended ranked only fourth when compared to the previous decade. Earlier class years saw cutoffs of 211 and 212 (twice). So why did last year’s cutoffs rise to levels that had seemed impossible? The highest cutoffs had never exceeded 223 (Maryland’s 224 in the class of 2022 was due to every PSAT in the state being cancelled and students qualifying via SAT scores). How did New Jersey and Massachusetts reach 225 and California, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington end up at 224? The best explanation is that the very top RW scores — 740-760 — increased at an even higher rate than 700-730s. A 225 cutoff is not possible without at least a 750 RW. A 224 requires at least a 740 RW. Students were acing the test in record numbers.
The plummet for the class of 2027
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for the class of 2027 is even lower than it was two years ago. The surfeit of 700+ scores dried up. Obtaining a 740-760 grew harder. As with Math scores, sophomore performance changes matched that of juniors.
Process of elimination
The rapid gains and collapse eliminate (A), (B), and (C). As sophomores, the class of 2027 was phenomenal at reading according to the PSAT. Post-Covid learning changes cannot explain why they suddenly struggled as juniors. Option (B) doesn’t fit, because Math scores were not the source of the changes. Why would test preparation have stopped working (C), and how can it explain that sophomores and juniors were similarly impacted across the years? This leaves (D) as a remote contender. Except that it fails to explain the 50-state reach of the changes and the magnitude of the changes even in the largest states.
Thirteen of the largest fifteen states dropped by 3 points or more. Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw 2-point declines. If the smaller states were pulling down the class of 2027’s average cutoffs, we might at least attribute some of the disruption to the instability of cutoffs when there are fewer than 100 Semifinalists. That’s not what happened. And if only a few large states saw inflows or outflows of top test takers, the impact would have been muted. Nor did overall test taker numbers change much. When the entire set of large states has this magnitude of a change, the test scale itself has to be at the heart of it.
What does a 3-point change represent and why is it so bad?
For simplicity, the change can be characterized as a 15-point miss in RW on the 160-760 scale (200-800 on the SAT).
- The typical annual growth in RW scores is about 40-50 points, so the scale change represents approximately one-third of an academic year.
- Systematic scaling error is additive to individual student fluctuations in scores — typically around +/-30 points on each side of the PSAT and SAT. Scaling error makes it harder for students to determine where they will score and how their score stacks up.
- Scaling error produces incorrect percentile ranks, because percentiles are based on the 3 prior years of results. Sudden inflation or deflation gives an inaccurate read.
- The PSAT is used for purposes beyond National Merit such as AP placement or state-mandated testing. Results may not align with prior years or academic growth expectations.
- When error happens primarily on one side of the PSAT, some students are unfairly disadvantaged.
- In a competition such as National Merit where relative standing matters, a uniform increase or decrease might be tolerable. A rising tide lifts all students (sort of). Except that there is no way of knowing whether the error applied equally to all students. The digital PSAT is not a single form or even a limited set of forms. Exams across the PSAT testing window can vary, and even on the same test dates, students often see differing questions. It’s one of the security advantages provided by digital testing, but it can also be a curse. College Board provides no reporting on the items or scaling, so students (and Compass) have no way of assessing the impact on individuals. Schools have no way of knowing if their students were hit harder than at other schools.
- This keeps happening. Is College Board having difficulty keeping the digital PSAT scale consistent or will things stay more consistent over time? The historical record says that they will not.
Do these sorts of systematic scaling errors occur on the SAT?
They do. They are harder to spot, but likely even more common. Noted above is that the largest disruptions on the PSAT/NMSQT occur, on average, every 4 years. The SAT is given on (a) 8 national dates every year, (b) during a 2-month SAT School Day window in the spring, and (c) during a 1-month window in the fall. This accelerates the chance for errors. It creates a near certainty that some students will encounter systematic error in their favor and others will see it working against them.
The PSAT and the National Merit Scholarship Program provide a unique laboratory. The PSAT/NMSQT represents one slice in time. The population of PSAT takers is relatively stable from year to year, and the sophomore and junior PSATs provide a sort of longitudinal double-check. The 50 state cutoffs and their varying levels give information about the extent of scaling errors. Comparing ever-shifting SAT dates is difficult, especially because College Board restricts access to the data. It is unfortunate that the primary protection students have is taking the SAT multiple times. In combination with superscoring, it represents the best way for students to lock-in positive error.
How do errors happen? Shouldn’t scores stay consistent?
When new tests are designed, not every problem can be tested on previous populations of students. Instead, a sampling of problems is tested with a sampling of students, perhaps 4-5,000. In theory, that’s a significant enough size that random error will make little difference. The sample group should be comparable to the entire population. Random error is an acceptable part of test creation, because it largely cancels out at scale.
But what if the error is not random? What if the test design is flawed? For example, if the methodology continually overestimates the ability of the sample groups, future questions will be predicted to be harder than they really are. And then over-prediction may happen with the next group. This systematic bias can creep into a test production and equating process. Normally it is spotted. As we see from the October 2024 PSAT and similar examples, sometimes it is not. The National Merit program provides a challenge to test creators, because everything important happens in a narrow part of the scale. On the digital PSAT, only 50 questions count toward a student’s score. Differentiating between a 720 student, for example, and a 730 student, and a 740 student rests on small differences in performance. If College Board has the statistics even slightly off, scores will not align well across tests. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
Predictions and timeline for the class of 2028 and beyond
Compass has always warned students not to be too fixated on a single cutoff target. The crazy events of the last two years have made it obvious that cutoffs can move in large and unexpected ways. It’s better to think in terms of score ranges rather than a pass/fail score. Prior to the PSAT, we can only estimate based on historical figures, without knowing what kind of surprises College Board has in store. After the PSAT, Compass analyzes the national results in the broad buckets that College Board provides. This usually gives a clear idea of which way the overall trend is moving. We should see how RW and Math scores behave, what the 1400-1520 bucket looks like, and develop a tight estimate of the Commended cutoff. For example, here is the estimate from last year.
Unfortunately, it does not provide insight into individual states. In April, the Commended level usually leaks, and we get confirmation of the national trend predictions. It’s not until Semifinalist notifications start being handed out in late August that state-by-state information starts coming into focus.
Below is a pre-PSAT summary. Find the range of potential cutoffs in your state, and how it has stacked up in recent class years. Below the table is more information about the National Merit program. You may also want to consult our post on National Merit Explained, which goes more into the steps of the process, what different honors mean, and what sort of scholarships are available.
State | Class of 2028 (Est Range) | Class of 2027 (Actual) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg SF Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 239 |
| Alaska | 207-217 | 208 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 36 |
| Arizona | 214-220 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 359 |
| Arkansas | 209-215 | 210 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 145 |
| California | 219-224 | 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,125 |
| Colorado | 216-221 | 217 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 280 |
| Connecticut | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 182 |
| Delaware | 218-222 | 219 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 43 |
| Florida | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 959 |
| Georgia | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 554 |
| Hawaii | 215-220 | 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 210-216 | 211 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 90 |
| Illinois | 217-222 | 218 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 693 |
| Indiana | 214-219 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 320 |
| Iowa | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 152 |
| Kansas | 211-219 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 147 |
| Kentucky | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 208 |
| Louisiana | 210-217 | 211 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 227 |
| Maine | 211-217 | 214 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 61 |
| Maryland | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 313 |
| Massachusetts | 220-225 | 221 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 322 |
| Michigan | 215-220 | 216 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 509 |
| Minnesota | 213-220 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 284 |
| Mississippi | 209-215 | 211 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 149 |
| Missouri | 213-217 | 214 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 299 |
| Montana | 207-214 | 208 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 46 |
| Nebraska | 210-216 | 212 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 148 |
| New Hampshire | 213-219 | 215 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 64 |
| New Jersey | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 486 |
| New Mexico | 207-215 | 209 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 99 |
| New York | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 998 |
| North Carolina | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 502 |
| North Dakota | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 28 |
| Ohio | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 588 |
| Oklahoma | 208-216 | 210 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 195 |
| Oregon | 215-221 | 216 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 185 |
| Pennsylvania | 217-221 | 219 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 623 |
| Rhode Island | 212-220 | 213 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 50 |
| South Carolina | 209-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 225 |
| South Dakota | 208-215 | 210 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 39 |
| Tennessee | 213-219 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 324 |
| Texas | 218-222 | 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,508 |
| Utah | 208-216 | 209 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 181 |
| Vermont | 211-217 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 30 |
| Virginia | 219-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 412 |
| Washington | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 353 |
| West Virginia | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 211-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 295 |
| Wyoming | 207-213 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 21 |
| District of Columbia | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Studying Abroad | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 87 |
| U.S. Territories | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Commended | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (320-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
A student on Reddit has the complete list for all states and is posting here: https://www.reddit.com/u/lil-catfish/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Students helping students. Always makes me happy.
Some data, based on only one state (PA) and likely off by a few as I hand counted from a .jpg image of qualifiers:
2021 – 721 semifinalists, 121 with intended major code 000 = 16.8%
2022 – 682 semifinalists, 378 with intended major code 000 = 55.4%
Subtracting the same 16.8% from the 2022 SFs (114), would leave 264 excess 000 qualifiers, or 38.7% of all qualifiers.
(again – back of the envelope “statistics”, with several assumptions, which is always dangerous)
Thanks, Rich. I agree with your envelope. I suspect that PA is somewhere in the middle in terms of states impacted by canceled PSATs.
Hi, Art,
I’m from Massachusetts and scored a 221 on the PSAT last fall. Today, my school informed me that I had not qualified as a semifinalist. On your post from earlier today, you said that these cutoffs had been confirmed and that Massachusetts was listed at 221. How do I reconcile?
Thanks,
Confused in Massachusetts…
Teddy,
The Massachusetts cutoff is 221. If you attend a boarding school, you may face a higher cutoff. If you are not at a boarding school, double check that you were listed as NM eligible on your score report. If you are listed as eligible and not at a boarding school, then I’d contact NMSC to see if they can give you any more information. Good luck!
999 is undecided major; 000 is SAT AE. My son made it in Austin, TX for the regular Oct PSAT. However, there are several schools in Austin that have a high number of 000s even though the state was “open”. Check Vandegrift- it is all 000s. As mentioned by another person, the entire list is on Reddit. It would be helpful to pull together the percentages of 000s for different states and compare them to last year. Thank you Art for all you do and all the hard work your team does!
Ornery,
I don’t believe that 000 = AE. 000 reflects that the student has not opted into Student Search Services (which would be true of AE students, but would also be true of some PSAT students). Texas had a 000 rate of 20% last year, and it looks to be at 40% this year. My mind is still open as to whether the 20% figure for the class of 2021 is primarily AE or a combination of AE and SSS opt-out.
The Reddit images are great for checking names. Not so great for analysis. PDFs are far friendlier for analysis.
How do you explain Maryland? Look at some of the schools, particularly in Montgomery County. Far more semifinalists than in prior years (20+ at WWHS, compared to maybe 8 last year). Did all 20+ students score about 1500?
Yes, they did (or thereabouts). On the SAT. The cancelation of the PSAT in most public schools in Maryland really reshaped the map. Students at some of those powerhouses you see were able to use SAT scores to apply Alternate Entry. AE also allows students to use their best SAT scores. This made for an extremely competitive landscape, and one that worked against those who had taken the PSAT. Maryland did have a much higher than usual number of Semifinalists, so not all of the gain came at the expense of PSAT takers, but a portion of it certainly did.
My kid did NOT do AE and they had a 000 because they opted out of the student search services. As a recruited athlete who has already verbally committed, they did not have any interest in hearing from other schools. Hope this helps.
Thank you for the confirmation. Congratulations to your son!
Hi!! My son is a semifinalist too and has 000. He did not do AE. His classmate have other numbers. I am very confused now. Is there a way to know what “000” means? Thank you
Katya,
The numbers represent a student’s intended concentration as listed in the personal information provided during registration. My understanding is that information is only shared with NMSC if a student has opted to participate in Student Search Service. Since AE students haven’t taken the PSAT, they have no code (“000”). Other students — such as your son — may have the 000 because they did not opt to share their information.
If you haven’t seen the CA pdf yet, there’s a copy here: https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/ef/2b/f92135e24e7d963558fda24244e0/22-ca-semifinalists-natlmeritprogram.pdf
(I couldn’t figure out how to DM you so I responded on this thread)
Thanks, T.B.!
Since there’s been talk about 000’s lately… my former high school, which has a decent number of semifinalists every year, has had every semifinalist listed as “000” for the last four years (and I know they didn’t cancel the PSAT last year). However, every semifinalist in the classes of 2015, 2016, and 2017 had a nonzero number. At a school that has 5-10 semifinalists per year, this would be unlikely to happen by random chance. Do you know what’s up?
Still, looking at those lists for past years, there are quite a few schools that have all 000’s for years prior to 2022. I don’t think it can be ascribed to alternate entry.
I’m not certain, George. My theory is that some schools have a registration process that bypasses the Student Search Service.
When does the “Letter of commendation” go out?
Rhonda,
Letters of commendation are mailed to schools after the NMSF press release date, which was 9/15. So they should start arriving at schools next week.
Art,
Thanks for all the useful information. It has been a huge help. We are pretty excited as my daughter qualified based on her PSAT score. Couple of questions:
1.). Is there a place to see or figure out what Alternate entry scores meet the cutoff by state? For example would a 1500 qualify in CA versus a 1530?
2.). Does the 895,072 entrants number for 2022 include Alternative entry?
3.). Is it possible there are students that would have qualified based on their SAT scores that will not be recognized because they did not complete an application for alternate entry. At my daughter’s public school in CA not only did they did not offer the test they also did not offer any information about alternate testing locations or alternative entry. When we asked the counselor about taking the the PSAT he was clueless about alternate test locations and did not mention anything about alternative entry. I was able to find another school in our area that offered the January PSAT. I am just wondering if there is sort of mechanism in place for students to be automatically notified if their score were high enough. If not this would seem to provide an advantage to students at more academically oriented school where this type of information is emphasized.
Sorry in advance if you have already answered these questions.
Sam B
1) It’s a little more complicated than the total score. What you need to look for are the section scores that go from 10-40 in Reading, Writing & Language, and Math. For example, a student with a 1500 might have a 38 / 37 / 37.5, which gives a 750 / 750. To calculate the SI, you sum the section scores and multiply by 2. (38 + 37 + 37.5) * 2 = 225. Ah, but it’s not that easy in all cases. Because the PSAT maxes out at 38 on each section, NMSC caps the SAT scores at 38. Let’s say that 1500 scorer had 39 / 39 / 36 or 780 / 720. The calculation is (38 + 38 + 36) = 224.
2) My reading of it is that number is only for PSAT entrants (NMSC considers any eligible junior PSAT taker as an entrant) It’s possible that this number includes AE students. Because AE students are a relatively small, elite bunch, they wouldn’t change the total all that much.
3) If your daughter ended up taking the January PSAT, then she would have been entered through the normal National Merit pathway. Her SI should be on her PSAT score report. For students not taking the PSAT, there is no automatic entry. Students needed to apply in April and then submit SAT scores. You are correct that students at schools where information about AE was widely shared had an advantage.
Do we know yet what the essay question for semi-finalists?
“To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided on the application.” NMSC estimates that the maximum allowable length is about 3,500 characters.
Help! My son received a 215 but was told by his HS counselor that he is not a commended scholar. Is this true??
Gina,
You should check your son’s PSAT report to see that he was flagged as National Merit eligible. The 215 was clearly high enough, so there may be a misunderstanding. I would recommend contacting NMSC for more information. Good luck!
Think it is pretty weird to have a cutoff by STATE for something called a NATIONAL Merit Scholarship
Douglas,
It’s a common complaint, but NMSC has been handling things this way for 60+ years, so they are unlikely to change. The state cutoffs ensure national representation, so I don’t think the naming is completely unfair. A national cutoff would lead to a concentration of Semifinalists that could ultimately damage or destroy the program, as NMSC depends on a national array of schools and corporate sponsors.
Hello, are you sure that the lowest for DE is 218. Im kind of scared I might now make it. Just took the PSAT today. Know I got 760 on math byut other sections messed me up.
Harris,
That’s an estimate based on historical performance and how much states typically change year-to-year. I expect 95% of cutoffs to fall within these ranges. Obviously we don’t yet have any score data. Good luck!
Hello,
Could it be fair to speculate that the 2023 indexes may remain on the lower side following 1.5 year of online school during which many students fell behind grade level? We are in CA and hoping for index to stay at 221/222 max. Thank you Art.
Catherine,
I think that’s fair speculation. Other testing has shown that the disruption has impacted outcomes. My guess would be that the impact is lower among high-achieving students, but I don’t have evidence. And while PSAT numbers will recover, I doubt that they will fully recover this year.
Thank you for your thoughts Art. I certainly don’t expect SI for CA to be any lower than 221, just hoping it won’t jump to 223.
Hi Art,
I am trying to understand how a state’s PSAT NMSQT cutoff score is affected by the grade levels of the students taking it in any given year.
Some high schools here administer the PSAT to all 9th, 10th, and 11th graders. Other high schools here only give the PSAT in 10th grade. If an 11th grader wants to take the PSAT, they can – but they need to express interest, get signed up, etc.
10th graders do qualify for National Recognition programs, including African American or Black, Hispanic American or Latinx, Indigenous, or rural area / small town – but it is my understanding that, regardless of how high their score is, only 11th graders qualify for National Merit Semifinalist.
So are 11th graders helped or hindered when 10th and 9th graders also take the PSAT NMSQT in large numbers within their state?
Anxiously waiting for December 6th!
Thank you!
Cavvy,
Only juniors are eligible to participate in National Merit (with the very small exception of sophomores graduating early), so the scores of 9th and 10th graders have no impact on cutoffs. The National Recognition programs are run by College Board rather than National Merit Scholarship Corporation, so their rules also have no impact on NMSF qualification.
Hi Mr.Sawyer,
I scored a 212 in this year’s, October 2021 PSAT. I’m in the state of Arkansas. Do you think this will be enough for 2023 NMSF?
Taksh,
It’s going to be close enough that you’ll need to wait until September. My current “most likely” has Arkansas at 213, but we’re coming off classes where it was 212 and 211, so a 212 is definitely a possibility.
Hi, Mr. Sawyer,
What are the chances of receiving commendation for a score of 208 on the PSAT for a student in the class of 2023? The most likely score here is 211 but upon looking at multiple sites, I’ve seen lower numbers like 209 and 208.
Thanks for your time.
A,
I just published my data on this year’s scores. They point to a Commended of around 208.
With PSAT data out for the Oct 2021 administration, do we have an idea where the commended line will be for the class of 2023?
TOM,
I just published a major update that incorporated what I know about this year’s scores. I estimated a Commended cutoff of 208, with a possible range of 207-209.
221 in VA for class 2023, what are the odds thats good enough?
Emanuel,
Better than even. In “down” years nationally, Virginia has come in at 221, and I think we’re seeing a down year.
Hi,
Massachusetts 2020 cutoff was 222 and not 223. Just wanted to point out.
Thanks.
Matt,
If you can point me to the evidence, I’d be happy to update the table. The 223 is the cutoff for the class of 2020 according to my records.
Hi Art,
Do you know when you’ll have actual scores for the class of 2023? My son has an index score of 220 (Texas) and it looks like he’s not going to make it based on the most likely prediction of 221. Hoping for the best!
Cat,
I’ll be publishing tonight an updated post incorporating what we’ve learned about the October test scores. The information is useful but — as with any release of Dec scores — does not pin down state cutoffs. For that, we need to wait until information starts leaking in late August and early September. I will given an advance preview and say that I have updated my most likely to a 220 in Texas. Your son has a good chance.
Hi Art,
My child also has an index score of 220 (California) which seems like it’ll miss based on your prediction. Do you have any updates for the most likely prediction in California?
Angel,
Unfortunately, California has locked in on the 221 – 223 range in the last decade. I have a most likely of 222, but neither a 221 nor a 223 would surprise me.
Thank you, Art!!! Phewwww. All of us moms have been referencing the range you forecasted.
Second question – he took the SAT in August and got a 1570 (one and done). He said the PSAT was actually harder for him. Could the SAT score taken in August serve as a confirming score if he does become a national merit semi-finalist? I hope a SAT score that preceded the PSAT will be okay.
Cat,
The confirming score can be from August of sophomore year to December of senior year. Your son is all set! Yes, the scores from this year’s PSAT are coming in a bit low.
My son also got a 1570 on his SAT in Nov and we just saw his PSAT at 1480 (740 in each area) and we live in CA. I believe that is an SI 222? This is tight. Do you think he has a good chance?
JW,
A 222 is my prediction for California. I just posted a major update on why things are looking low — at least nationally. Unfortunately, I can’t rule out a 223 cutoff, so it’s going to be a winter/spring/summer of waiting until September.
Any change for Colorado?
Laurie,
I’ve estimated a 219 for Colorado, but I would not fight someone who thought it might come in at 217 or 218. Not that I’m planning to fight anyone over PSAT scores! Good luck.
Is a 225 sure to make it for Georgia or are there other factors?
Georgia,
Congratulations! A 225 will absolutely qualify for Semifinalist in every state in the country. Just be sure to check that NMSC has your class year and eligibility correct (it should be noted on your report). For the Finalist stage, you’ll need a “confirming” SAT or ACT score. See our NM FAQ for details, but you should have no problem reaching the necessary SAT Selection Index (likely in the 207-210 range).
Thank you Art!
Hi,
Would a 222 SI qualify in Ohio? I feel like I did well enough for NMSF but then again nothing is certain this year.
RL,
There is no chance that Ohio’s cutoff will jump to 223 this year. Congratulations.
That’s very reassuring to hear, thank you for the insight!
Do you think a 218 score index for Michigan will make the cutoff?
Chris,
That’s where I’ve pegged my latest “most likely” estimate, so I feel like it has a better than even shot at qualifying.
Hi Art,
My daughter took the PSAT in Florida.
The classroom where she tested was a bit chaotic. A young man sitting near her used his smartwatch at least once during the test, maybe twice. He was finally asked to leave the room. The Testing Monitor was hollering at him in between. It was loud and hard to concentrate.
My daughter’s Selection Index score was a 217 – one point off your projection of 218 for this year. She thinks she should take the SAT in March to see if she can get a higher score and qualify for National Merit. But since she already took the PSAT, would that even be a possibility? Would they consider an SAT score? Thank you!
Sami,
I’m sorry to hear of your daughter’s experience taking the exam. The good news is that I now think that a cutoff of 217 is most likely in Florida. That’s no guarantee, of course, but I think your daughter has an excellent shot. Once a PSAT score becomes official, a student cannot switch to Alternate Entry. The SAT score would only be applicable at the Finalist stage, where students need a “confirming score” to qualify.
Art,
As another poster said, my daughter also mentioned that this PSAT, especially the Reading section, seemed harder than the SAT! She took the SAT and scored in the high 1400’s, so she should be good for the confirming score.
If Florida’s Selection Index score does indeed remain at 217, she is going to be over the moon. We will be watching for the update you are posting later tonight! Thank you!
Update posted. It’s going to be close, but given even odds, I’d certainly bet on your daughter’s 217. Unfortunately, it’s a long wait until September. Yes, high 1400s will make for a confirming score.
Hey Art,
Does your actual cutoff prediction for Alabama remain 214?
Yes, although Alabama is a good example of why we need to think in terms of ranges. In the 3 class years I cite as the best analogues, Alabama’s cutoff has been at 215, 212, and 212.
Hi Art,
Do you think a 222 will be semifinalist in California? I know it
yyyubi,
Yes, I do. I can’t discount the possibility of a 223 cutoff, but it looks to be a “down” year for most states.