After months of speculation and projections, the official National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2027 were released September 9th. On average, these are the lowest cutoffs in National Merit history, with all 50 state cutoffs sitting lower than they did last year. Most cutoffs went down at least 3 points from the class of 2026’s figures. Alaska set the pace with a 7-point decline. New Jersey again finished with the highest mark, dropping from 225 to 223. Compass will explore:
- How the class of 2027 results stack up historically and how cutoffs are set
- The lower number of Semifinalists nationally
- Why cutoffs declined so precipitously. Hint: It’s not the students.
- The implications of score instability for students, schools, and states
- What the class of 2028 might expect after they take the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and on what timeline
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even “full-rides” for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, look at whether a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
Summarizing the changes seen for the class of 2027
In October 2015 the PSAT moved to a 320-1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400-1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are in the last eleven class years.
This year saw the average Semifinalist cutoff hit a record low. It provided something of a mirror image to the class of 2026. Last year, 11 states set new record highs in the modern PSAT era, and 10 more tied their records. This year, 5 states established new lows, and 18 tied their record lows. Kansas and Minnesota both dropped 2 points below their previous lows, an unusual event for mid-sized states. Even more unusual was what happened in the largest dozen states. None of those has ever seen a drop of more than 3 points, but this year saw California, Illinois, and Michigan fall 4 points.
Results this year were closer to those in the class of 2024 than they were to the previous two years’ results. Recency is not always a predictor of future results. The Commended level, which is set nationally, declined 2 points this year to 208. The Semifinalist cutoffs, in contrast, fell 3 points.
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Why did the total number of Semifinalists decline?
After recognizing more than 17,000 Semifinalists in the prior two years, the class of 2027 saw only 16,230, a decline of 5%. The decline in Semifinalists is a separate issue from lower cutoffs. Setting cutoffs can be a blunt tool. In a large state, there may be more than 200-300 students at a single score. Small states might have multiple scores with zero students. NMSC can’t always hit its targets on the nose. Below are the largest swings in both directions.
How Semifinalists are allocated among states
It’s possible that NMSC recalibrated the total target number of Semifinalists this year. It helps to understand how National Merit sets cutoffs. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school students, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
The changes in the above chart fit within the historical pattern, so students should expect similar swings to happen in the future. New Jersey had about the same number of Semifinalists in 2023 as it saw this year, and actually fell from a greater height compared to 2022. Similarly, Texas saw fewer than 1,462 Semifinalists in classes of 2020, 2021, and 2022. And there is little chance that NMSC calculated that Texas’ high school population was falling faster than, say, California’s. We won’t know until next September whether the 16,230 Semifinalists was a fluke or a new standard.
The Mystery of the Declining PSAT Scores
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. National Merit cutoffs may not have the makings of a Sherlock Holmes novel. The guilty party is too easy to identify and the deduction not all that improbable. To borrow from another mystery trope: it’s College Board in the testing room with a faulty scale.
When test scores change from year-to-year, College Board issues press releases discussing testing patterns and student achievement. What they never include is “That one’s on us.” When it comes to National Merit scores, however, it often is.
A history of change
Over the last seventeen years, there have been six classes that saw cutoffs change in more than forty states. The heat strip below shows how cutoffs shift from year to year.
Even if we eliminate “bounce back” years where scores come back into line after an unusual shift, a major disruption occurs approximately every 4 years. Interestingly, none of those scoring disruptions can be attached to the biggest behavioral disruption of all — the Covid cancellations that drove PSAT/NMSQT volumes below one million for the first time in decades. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (class of 2013), 2016 (class of 2018), and 2019 (class of 2021) stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year, similar to what we are seeing with the class of 2027.
When Semifinalist cutoffs reached vertiginous levels last year, several theories made the rounds:
- (A) Covid-related learning losses were vanquished
- (B) The integrated Desmos calculator on the digital PSAT had “broken” the Math section
- (C) Test preparation — and maybe AI-enabled test preparation — had made the test too easy
- (D) The test taking population shifted
Compass disputed each of these theories, but it wasn’t until this year’s free-fall that we could put each of them fully to rest. A key piece of evidence is which scores rose and fell.
Over the most recent three PSATs, the highest reported Math scores (College Board groups all 700-760 scores together) did go up on the October 2024 PSAT, but they settled back down on the October 2025 PSAT. If improving Math skills were the key driver, why did they not keep progressing upward? The fall PSAT also provides an inherent double-check, because sophomores and juniors both take the exam in similar numbers. Sophomores and juniors consistently tracked each other across the different exams. The class of 2025 and 2026 overlapped, then 2026 and 2027, and then 2027 and 2028. Every PSAT the movement has been similar. Yet sophomores do not do test preparation in sufficient force to shape score results. The sets of classes were in different points of math development during remote learning, and yet they showed the same rises and falls. Learning loss and test preparation do not provide coherent answers.
Reading & Writing scores were the true driver of the class of 2026 records and the 2027 declines
High RW scores are typically less common than high Math scores. But on the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Top scores went up by 18%. The double-weight that RW scores provide in the Selection Index pushed cutoffs to new highs. The 210 Commended ranked only fourth when compared to the previous decade. Earlier class years saw cutoffs of 211 and 212 (twice). So why did last year’s cutoffs rise to levels that had seemed impossible? The highest cutoffs had never exceeded 223 (Maryland’s 224 in the class of 2022 was due to every PSAT in the state being cancelled and students qualifying via SAT scores). How did New Jersey and Massachusetts reach 225 and California, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington end up at 224? The best explanation is that the very top RW scores — 740-760 — increased at an even higher rate than 700-730s. A 225 cutoff is not possible without at least a 750 RW. A 224 requires at least a 740 RW. Students were acing the test in record numbers.
The plummet for the class of 2027
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for the class of 2027 is even lower than it was two years ago. The surfeit of 700+ scores dried up. Obtaining a 740-760 grew harder. As with Math scores, sophomore performance changes matched that of juniors.
Process of elimination
The rapid gains and collapse eliminate (A), (B), and (C). As sophomores, the class of 2027 was phenomenal at reading according to the PSAT. Post-Covid learning changes cannot explain why they suddenly struggled as juniors. Option (B) doesn’t fit, because Math scores were not the source of the changes. Why would test preparation have stopped working (C), and how can it explain that sophomores and juniors were similarly impacted across the years? This leaves (D) as a remote contender. Except that it fails to explain the 50-state reach of the changes and the magnitude of the changes even in the largest states.
Thirteen of the largest fifteen states dropped by 3 points or more. Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw 2-point declines. If the smaller states were pulling down the class of 2027’s average cutoffs, we might at least attribute some of the disruption to the instability of cutoffs when there are fewer than 100 Semifinalists. That’s not what happened. And if only a few large states saw inflows or outflows of top test takers, the impact would have been muted. Nor did overall test taker numbers change much. When the entire set of large states has this magnitude of a change, the test scale itself has to be at the heart of it.
What does a 3-point change represent and why is it so bad?
For simplicity, the change can be characterized as a 15-point miss in RW on the 160-760 scale (200-800 on the SAT).
- The typical annual growth in RW scores is about 40-50 points, so the scale change represents approximately one-third of an academic year.
- Systematic scaling error is additive to individual student fluctuations in scores — typically around +/-30 points on each side of the PSAT and SAT. Scaling error makes it harder for students to determine where they will score and how their score stacks up.
- Scaling error produces incorrect percentile ranks, because percentiles are based on the 3 prior years of results. Sudden inflation or deflation gives an inaccurate read.
- The PSAT is used for purposes beyond National Merit such as AP placement or state-mandated testing. Results may not align with prior years or academic growth expectations.
- When error happens primarily on one side of the PSAT, some students are unfairly disadvantaged.
- In a competition such as National Merit where relative standing matters, a uniform increase or decrease might be tolerable. A rising tide lifts all students (sort of). Except that there is no way of knowing whether the error applied equally to all students. The digital PSAT is not a single form or even a limited set of forms. Exams across the PSAT testing window can vary, and even on the same test dates, students often see differing questions. It’s one of the security advantages provided by digital testing, but it can also be a curse. College Board provides no reporting on the items or scaling, so students (and Compass) have no way of assessing the impact on individuals. Schools have no way of knowing if their students were hit harder than at other schools.
- This keeps happening. Is College Board having difficulty keeping the digital PSAT scale consistent or will things stay more consistent over time? The historical record says that they will not.
Do these sorts of systematic scaling errors occur on the SAT?
They do. They are harder to spot, but likely even more common. Noted above is that the largest disruptions on the PSAT/NMSQT occur, on average, every 4 years. The SAT is given on (a) 8 national dates every year, (b) during a 2-month SAT School Day window in the spring, and (c) during a 1-month window in the fall. This accelerates the chance for errors. It creates a near certainty that some students will encounter systematic error in their favor and others will see it working against them.
The PSAT and the National Merit Scholarship Program provide a unique laboratory. The PSAT/NMSQT represents one slice in time. The population of PSAT takers is relatively stable from year to year, and the sophomore and junior PSATs provide a sort of longitudinal double-check. The 50 state cutoffs and their varying levels give information about the extent of scaling errors. Comparing ever-shifting SAT dates is difficult, especially because College Board restricts access to the data. It is unfortunate that the primary protection students have is taking the SAT multiple times. In combination with superscoring, it represents the best way for students to lock-in positive error.
How do errors happen? Shouldn’t scores stay consistent?
When new tests are designed, not every problem can be tested on previous populations of students. Instead, a sampling of problems is tested with a sampling of students, perhaps 4-5,000. In theory, that’s a significant enough size that random error will make little difference. The sample group should be comparable to the entire population. Random error is an acceptable part of test creation, because it largely cancels out at scale.
But what if the error is not random? What if the test design is flawed? For example, if the methodology continually overestimates the ability of the sample groups, future questions will be predicted to be harder than they really are. And then over-prediction may happen with the next group. This systematic bias can creep into a test production and equating process. Normally it is spotted. As we see from the October 2024 PSAT and similar examples, sometimes it is not. The National Merit program provides a challenge to test creators, because everything important happens in a narrow part of the scale. On the digital PSAT, only 50 questions count toward a student’s score. Differentiating between a 720 student, for example, and a 730 student, and a 740 student rests on small differences in performance. If College Board has the statistics even slightly off, scores will not align well across tests. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
Predictions and timeline for the class of 2028 and beyond
Compass has always warned students not to be too fixated on a single cutoff target. The crazy events of the last two years have made it obvious that cutoffs can move in large and unexpected ways. It’s better to think in terms of score ranges rather than a pass/fail score. Prior to the PSAT, we can only estimate based on historical figures, without knowing what kind of surprises College Board has in store. After the PSAT, Compass analyzes the national results in the broad buckets that College Board provides. This usually gives a clear idea of which way the overall trend is moving. We should see how RW and Math scores behave, what the 1400-1520 bucket looks like, and develop a tight estimate of the Commended cutoff. For example, here is the estimate from last year.
Unfortunately, it does not provide insight into individual states. In April, the Commended level usually leaks, and we get confirmation of the national trend predictions. It’s not until Semifinalist notifications start being handed out in late August that state-by-state information starts coming into focus.
Below is a pre-PSAT summary. Find the range of potential cutoffs in your state, and how it has stacked up in recent class years. Below the table is more information about the National Merit program. You may also want to consult our post on National Merit Explained, which goes more into the steps of the process, what different honors mean, and what sort of scholarships are available.
State | Class of 2028 (Est Range) | Class of 2027 (Actual) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg SF Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 239 |
| Alaska | 207-217 | 208 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 36 |
| Arizona | 214-220 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 359 |
| Arkansas | 209-215 | 210 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 145 |
| California | 219-224 | 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,125 |
| Colorado | 216-221 | 217 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 280 |
| Connecticut | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 182 |
| Delaware | 218-222 | 219 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 43 |
| Florida | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 959 |
| Georgia | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 554 |
| Hawaii | 215-220 | 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 210-216 | 211 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 90 |
| Illinois | 217-222 | 218 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 693 |
| Indiana | 214-219 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 320 |
| Iowa | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 152 |
| Kansas | 211-219 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 147 |
| Kentucky | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 208 |
| Louisiana | 210-217 | 211 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 227 |
| Maine | 211-217 | 214 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 61 |
| Maryland | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 313 |
| Massachusetts | 220-225 | 221 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 322 |
| Michigan | 215-220 | 216 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 509 |
| Minnesota | 213-220 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 284 |
| Mississippi | 209-215 | 211 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 149 |
| Missouri | 213-217 | 214 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 299 |
| Montana | 207-214 | 208 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 46 |
| Nebraska | 210-216 | 212 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 148 |
| New Hampshire | 213-219 | 215 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 64 |
| New Jersey | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 486 |
| New Mexico | 207-215 | 209 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 99 |
| New York | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 998 |
| North Carolina | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 502 |
| North Dakota | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 28 |
| Ohio | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 588 |
| Oklahoma | 208-216 | 210 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 195 |
| Oregon | 215-221 | 216 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 185 |
| Pennsylvania | 217-221 | 219 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 623 |
| Rhode Island | 212-220 | 213 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 50 |
| South Carolina | 209-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 225 |
| South Dakota | 208-215 | 210 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 39 |
| Tennessee | 213-219 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 324 |
| Texas | 218-222 | 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,508 |
| Utah | 208-216 | 209 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 181 |
| Vermont | 211-217 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 30 |
| Virginia | 219-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 412 |
| Washington | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 353 |
| West Virginia | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 211-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 295 |
| Wyoming | 207-213 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 21 |
| District of Columbia | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Studying Abroad | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 87 |
| U.S. Territories | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Commended | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (320-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
What are your thoughts on a score released today of 1470/118 (in Fl)? Likely or hard to say if scores are much higher this year overall?
TK,
I’m going to assume that you meant to type 218 for the Selection Index. I don’t want to get too far ahead of the data. If the second set of scores is like the first, then it’s likely cutoffs will go up. It doesn’t mean that they’ll go up in the same way in all states. In what I think of as the “high” years (Classes of 2018, 2019, and 2020) Florida saw cutoffs of 219. In those years, the Commended cutoff fell at 211, 211, and 212. In the “low” years, when the Commended cutoff has been under 210, the Florida cutoff fell at 216 and 217. Hopefully we have a better idea in the coming weeks which way things are leaning.
Thank you for your quick reply. Yes , I mistyped. I meant 218. Great article by the way! Well fingers crossed then. Hopefully it will not jump to 219.
Hello!
I got a 1450 and 214 index on the PSAT, and I was wondering if you think that’s good enough for National Merit in Oklahoma. The only reason I feel the need to reply is because I’m a bit uncertain since my score report says that I am in the 98th percentile, and I don’t know if that is an indicator of whether I got it or not. I know you have to be in the top 1% of testers to get NMS, but I wanted to confirm with you to see if this statistic definitively confirms that I’m out of the running. Thanks!
Josh,
You don’t actually have to be in the top 1% to get NMSF. It’s often used as a shorthand, because about 1% of all test takers make Semifinalist, but that neglects the fact that Semifinalist cutoffs are determined state by state. In the last 8 years (dating to the last major overhaul), a 214 would have qualified in 6 of those years. Last year, Oklahoma’s cutoff dropped to 208! Do we know your 214 is high enough? No. But I am certain that you are in the running.
Thank you. I also forgot to clarify that I am in the 98th percentile for my state. Does that change anything and mean I’m out of the running?
No, it doesn’t change anything. Percentiles are based on scores from prior years, so it doesn’t tell us how your score stacks up this year. Still not out of the running!
This may seem confusing, because there are a number of states where even the 99th percentile in the state won’t be enough. The difference is that only about 15% of Oklahoma students take the PSAT. That contrasts with about 75% of students in Connecticut, for example. Since the pool of PSAT takers is smaller, a larger proportion of them will be Semifinalists.
Thank you so much Art! I really appreciate all the effort you’ve put into this!
Hi Art,
My daughter has a an index of 222, do you think the index will be 223 this year for California. Very worried because everyone is saying the scores were inflated this year.
Paul,
I’ve been through a lot of high years and low years when it comes to cutoffs, and this is feeling like a high year. I hope to have more numbers next week. Only once — class of 2019 — has California’s cutoff reached 223. That class had the highest set of cutoffs ever across the country.
Even with the full set of numbers, I don’t expect to be able to completely rule out a 223 cutoff. I’d reframe it as that you should be cautiously optimistic at 222 rather than worried! Good luck to your daughter.
Hi Art,
Thank you for the great blog!
Many of my daughter’s friends found that this year’s digital PSAT was a lot easier than the practice tests. It looks like the cut-offs are going to be high this year. Is the 222 index good enough to make National Merit Semifinalist in Illinois for the Class of 2025? Her score is 1490 (730 in English and 760 in Math)
Also, next to 99th percentile, there is a ‘>’ sign (>99th). What does that mean?
Thanks!
Megan,
I’ll take the easy part first. The >99th percentile is also sometimes expressed as 99+. It means that your daughter’s score was in the top 0.5% of scores. Which is fabulous! It just doesn’t tell us anything about whether your daughter’s score will qualify for NMSF. Percentiles are based on the previous 3 class years (for my full screed about percentiles, see the bottom of my post). We’ve had years where cutoffs skewed high — specifically, the classes of 2018, 2019, and 2020. The good news is that IL’s cutoff never went above 221. I think there is little chance that it would jump to 223 this year.
Hi, I got a 1420 on the PSAT with an index score of 218. It says that my score is in the top 99% for my state– would this be a good indication that I would qualify? And does the established score range account for how the cutoff estimates might increase if the scores you get on November 16 are also inflated? I know that 218 has always qualified for Idaho, but I’m nervous that everyone’s score will be so high that the cutoff will shoot up in unexpected ways.
Desiree,
Before I launch into an explanation, let me say, “Great score!” The 99th percentile, though, doesn’t tell us anything useful about whether or not you will qualify as a Semifinalist in Idaho. The percentiles are based on the 3 prior class years. In other words, if there is inflation — and we are not certain that there is — the percentiles wouldn’t show it at all. Scores can indeed shoot up in unexpected ways. But even the unexpected has its limits. We’ve never seen a state cutoff change by more than 6 points. Idaho’s would have to go up 8 points. Idaho’s highest historical cutoff is 216. I can’t recall a new record high that has ever been 3 points above the old record. I really like your odds.
I’m in CA and got 219 selection index, 1430 PSAT. I think i’m probably out of the running, but is there any chance of a cutoff of 219 this year? Trying to hope for the best 🙁
Liza,
We’d only see a 219 cutoff if something were driving scores lower this year. It seems like we may be seeing the opposite. I don’t think we will see a 2-point drop this year.
Hi Art
Is there any chance the California cutoff for semifinalist could drop to 220 now that all scores are in?
Thanks for all the info
DJ,
A number of things would need to come together. We’d need to see declining participation in CA and need a very weak year overall. So far we don’t have evidence of either of those 2 things. In the last 8 years, California has been at 220 only once, and that was in a year with a Commended level of 207.
Hey Art,
Do you think Florida could rise past 220? And is there like a guarantee within your range that it won’t go past 219? I’m at 220 and a little but worried that I got close but not close enough.
Thanks!
Ella,
Keep in mind that my guarantees come with a money-back offer only because they are free to begin with. I don’t see any way in which a state as large as Florida could jump from 216 to 221. Could it go past 219? I think it is extremely unlikely. Jumping another point beyond that? No.
Hi Art. What are your thoughts on 1470/218 in Texas? Is there any chance the cut-off score in Texas could drop to 218 this year?
CM,
You may want to come back at then end of next week to see my thoughts after all the data is in. Texas has become more competitive since the last time it’s cutoff hit 218 in the class of 2013. We’re likely only going to see it again in a year when overall scores are way down.
Hi I got a 760 math 660 reading with a final of a 1420 and a 208 index in New York. I’m also Latina idk if that would help but could I qualify?
Anonymous,
A 208, I’m afraid, will miss the Semifinalist cutoff in New York. You are likely to receive an invitation this winter to apply for the National Hispanic Recognition Program, which is a separate program run by College Board rather than by National Merit.
How likely do you think it is that we will have a state go above 224? I keep hearing of kids who got a perfect score. Do you think CB has calibrated the scoring correctly?
Students with perfect scores tend to make it known that they got perfect scores. And I don’t begrudge them that at all! But it can make it seem like “everyone” is scoring through the roof. I haven’t yet seen evidence that the calibration could be so off that we’d see a 225. We’ve had years where the calibration was off and we’ve only hit 223 (I discount Maryland’s 224 because it was attributable to alternate entry during the pandemic).
Hello!
My son got a 1480 and 220 index on the PSAT, and I was wondering if you think that’s good enough for National Merit in Texas? I feel this will be a high cutoff year.
Howard,
I’d recommend checking back next week to see if this year is going to be a “high” year or a “low” year (or something in the middle, I suppose). Realistically, you are going to be waiting until September to find out. A 220 is certainly in the running. It’s more of a question about which score is “most likely.”
Hi Art,
Do you think CA’s might go upto 223 this year? My daughter has a 222 and we are in a nail biting suspense, thank you!
Paul,
I can’t say that it is impossible. The switch to the digital PSAT makes me leery of setting narrow bands for cutoffs. I think your daughter has a good chance with 222 (CA has only ever hit 223 once), but I’d try to keep those nails intact. They’ll need to last until September!
Could we see Maryland reach 226 or even 227 this year?
Derek,
No.
I’m tempted to leave my answer at 1 word, because it sums it up nicely. No state will ever have a 226 or 227 cutoff as long as the PSAT tops out at 228. There is no math that makes it work.
Am I misunderstanding how to calculate? I see the following scores could give you a selection index of 226 or 227:
760 English + 750 Math = 227
750 English + 760 Math = 226
760 English + 740 Math = 226
Jane,
Yes, you have it right. If I said otherwise, I was in a fog.
Hi Art, my daughter got 1430 /215 in Michigan. The chart says most likely the cut off would be 217, so I’m wondering if there’s still any slim chance for her to be in the running.
Marrie,
I have 215 included in my range of possible scores because it is possible. I’ll be honest: if the next set of scores comes out strong, then that possibility takes a hit. We’ll know more next week.
Hi Art,
My daughter has an Index score of 220 in Texas. Last year the cut off was 219. Since Texas is a big state in terms population, how much is the chance for the cut off to go up by 2 points in Texas, looking at the current trend of the 1st phase of results published this week. Thanks for your comments and advice.
Sayan,
I like to look at the history for these types of questions. The only times Texas’s cutoff has gone to 221 are when the Commended cutoff has been high (211 and 212). We’ll have a better estimate of the Commended level next week. If next week was like this week, then the Commended cutoff might be 210 or so. I don’t think that’s definitive enough to rule out 221, although I’d like your chances. If we saw signs that the Commended level had jumped to 212, then 221 takes over from 220 as the most likely. Even then, I would not count out a 220.
I got a 1460 (720 for RW and 740 for Math) and 218 index score. I also live in Minnesota and the cutoff is 217. Do you think I will be a semifinalist?
Caleb,
I think we’ll know more once we see how the full set of students did nationally. A big shift in the Commended cutoff will often flow through to the state cutoffs (although not uniformly). If you look at Minnesota during the yeears where we had high Commended cutoffs (classes of 2018, 2019, and 2020), Minnesota had cutoffs of 220, 220, and 219. So the concern is about how much jump we see in the Commended, because that’s the best indicator we have on how much “inflation” there might be in the system this year. I think a 218 is going to at least be in the running.
Hi Art – I’m curious, if one got a 760 on one of the sections, does that mean they got every answer correct? If not, how many can one get wrong and still receive a 760?
Thank you for this incredibly helpful site!
Jane,
The new scaling methodology for the digital tests makes that difficult to answer. The adaptive nature of the test allows the College Board to define high scores (and low ones) with more accuracy with fewer questions. Still, the low number of questions means that it’s unlikely many students will receive a 760 without answering all questions correctly. I’d say that it’s practically impossible that a student could miss 2 questions and still get a 760. TL;dr 760 usually means perfect. It could rarely mean 1 wrong. It will never mean 2 wrong.
I’m from utah and got a 214 index score. Do you think I’ll cut it for National Merit, or will there be a big increase in the cutoff since this last psat was digital. Thanks
Jameson,
I don’t think we can chalk up any change just to the switch to digital. There is a long history of score variability. It’s difficult to make a test that does a good job of differentiating among students scoring at the highest levels, because they just miss so few questions! Sometimes test makers don’t have it dialed in perfectly, which is why we have seen the Commended level go from as low as 207 to as high as 212 over the last 8 years. Utah has been even more unpredictable — it hit a low of 209 this year, but was 216 for the class of 2018. We’ll have a better estimate of the Commended level next week. I’d say that you are in good shape if the Commended cutoff comes in at 207-208, ok shape at 209-210, and things get iffy at 211-212.
Hey Art,
I am sitting at a 1470 (710 ebrw/760 math) with an index of 218. I live in Georgia and I am very nervous about changes in the cutoff even though a jump of 2 points seems unlikely it would be devestating. I’ve found that people I know generally scored lower than they expected considering how many points may be taken off for a question or two. I also wonder if c/o 2025 is still in the COVID downturn with scores. Finally, wouldn’t College Board have done plenty of testing to ensure this year isn’t too volatile especially in a larger state like Georgia? Perhaps I’m just trying to give myself hope but I may be waiting until next September with my fingers crossed the whole time.
Bennett,
We’ll know more next week, I think. I suspect that we’ll see less COVID learning loss for the class of 2025 than we saw for 2023 and 2024.
College Board does do a lot of testing, and I think the digital PSAT will have a good record. But it’s hard to get things perfect each year, which is what the history shows. Georgia has gone as high as 220 over the last 8 years. I like the plan of giving yourself hope and keeping your fingers crossed. No matter what we see at the national level, a 218 is going to be in the running, so you might as well stay positive. It makes the wait feel shorter. Good luck!
Hi Art,
My daughter in Oklahoma scored a 215. I don’t see a year in Oklahoma that this score would not qualify. Principal believes cut-off will be 210. What do you think cut-off in Oklahoma will be and do you believe the 215 score is safely in?
Rob,
She has an excellent shot. There was a 216 cutoff back in the class of 2018. But an 8-point jump would be a record. My guess is that it will be above 210 (Oklahoma’s only year below 210 was last year), but 216 would be a stretch.
Your principal’s take is interesting. Presumably they are used to a certain number of Semifinalists and are looking at where that would fall this year. It’s just one school’s data, so it’s far from definitive. It’s nice to get multiple perspectives on the data.
Thank you for a great information. My son got 1470/219 and I see NJ state cutoff is around 223 projected . I hope he will be able to make the list.
Kalpana,
If he does not make Semifinalist, he will at least be named a Commended Student with his 219.
Hi, I got a 1480/220 on the PSAT this year. Is this good enough for semifinalist in Illinois? I know this is very close to the cutoff, so I am scared.
Rey,
I don’t think we are going to know with enough accuracy to say whether or not 220 will qualify until results are announced in September (IL has had some 221 years). The best thing you can do is stay positive and focus on all of the things under your control. If you are named a Semifinalist, then the Finalist stage involves your GPA and SAT/ACT score and recommendations, etc. So concentrate on the forward looking things that also happen to be crucial for admission! Good luck.
Hi Art,
Can you speak to your thoughts on Wisconsin? Cutoff has been 213 the past two years and it appears you believe it will stay at 213 for 2025. If you believe this is a “high” year, why do you believe the Wisconsin index will not rise? My student is right on 213, so of course, we are cautiously optimistic.
KJ,
There are some signs that it could be a high year, and I’ve certainly speculated about it in the comments. But my estimates do not account for it. That’s because I don’t feel that we should move much off the baseline until there is more data (and there should be more data next week). I assumed a mild increase in the Commended level when working up my initial state estimates (207 -> 208 Commended). Wisconsin would be most likely to fall at 213 or 214 with a 208 Commended, and I gave the tip to 213. If we see the Commended go as high as 211, on the other hand, then I think that it is more likely that we’d see something in the 214-216 range for WI.
Hi,
I’m from Missouri and got a 215 index score. Do you think Is this good enough for semifinalist in Missouri? Thanks
krishna,
You may want to refresh the site, as I just updated the table based on the second round of student scores. I have my Missouri “most likely” as at 215 exactly. We can usually expect two-thirds of state cutoffs to fall at or below the most likely figure.
Hey Art,
I commented on here a few days ago about Georgia because I am sitting at a 218 index with a 1470. What are the chances that I get national merit? I know the estimate is one point higher but how often are the estimates wrong?
Bennett,
Frequently! As I show, even the “most likely” estimate is only right about 1/3 of the time. It’s quite possible that Georgia will be at 218. I looked closely — although not exclusively — at the classes of 2017 and 2021 when setting my estimates, because I think the number of top scorers approximates those years (the class of 2021 most of all). In both of those years, the GA cutoff was 219. I’d stay optimistic. I like being wrong when it cuts that way.